Compared to regular bullwhip effect , chapter 5 deduces bullwhip effect in delivery schedule , which arises when downstream sites of the supply chain could n ' t share with upstream sites supply information of delivery time . to implement simple and reportable delivery performance in their erp , i rationally transform pert method to compute delivery schedule and forecast secure inventory level precisely . this gives the downstream partners a clear picture of the supply conditions of upstream suppliers , preventing delay of individual supplier diffusing to the whole chain 在供應(yīng)鏈的實際操作中,作者發(fā)現(xiàn)交貨期的延誤程度逐級放大的現(xiàn)象,而在以前學(xué)者的研究中并未涉及到,本文類比通常的牛鞭效應(yīng),將此現(xiàn)象稱之為“交貨期的牛鞭效應(yīng)” ;并比較工程系統(tǒng),將供應(yīng)鏈作為商業(yè)系統(tǒng),合理改進(jìn)系統(tǒng)工程中常用的pert方法,用于估算供應(yīng)商的交貨期,從而更精確的確定安全庫存,解決“交貨期的牛鞭效應(yīng)”問題。